Based on the two scenarios we could state that in scenario 1 most risks identified were of physical nature, whereas in scenario 2 emphasis lay on transitional risks. Regardless of how climate change continues to develop we must prepare ourselves for both types of risks since we most likely we will be caught in a scenario in-between. Read more about IPCC's climate scenarios here.
Some of Catena’s identified risks
Below are a few of the risks that were identified to have a high consequence and high probability per scenario – the risks also lead to opportunities
"Business as usual"
SSP5- 8.5: Global warming above 4 degrees Celsius
- Increased operational, maintenance and reparation costs due to e.g., warmer climate that leads to increased cooling of properties
- Stricter requirements for construction to ensure that properties can endure tougher climate leading to e.g., increased material costs.
- Increased precipitation and need of larger stormwater ponds, risk of water damages
- Some customer segments may be affected by extreme weather leading to climate related disturbances in their logistics
- More expensive insurances due to uncertainty and consequences of extreme climate
- Stricter requirements in the construction process leads to more resilient and sustainable properties
- Catena develops new ways of building e.g., expanding in height, adapting properties to natural surroundings, and coming physical risks
- Large roof areas can be used to collect rainwater
- Lower operational energy cost and dependency on external supplier by increasing the amount of renewable energy produced on site e.g., solar energy,
- Reduced heating costs during winter due to warmer climate
- Profitable to implement measures for energy efficiency
"We reach the Paris agreement"
SSP1 -2.6: Global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius
- Decreased asset value of properties that cannot be classified as sustainable
- Large investments to transform properties into more sustainable ones
- Limited degree of exploitation of land
- High investment costs on new, untested technique, with uncertain results
- The wrong strategy can lead to limited possibilities for financing
- Increased costs for energy
- By transitioning logistics facilities to energy efficient and sustainable properties, the asset value increases
- New innovations and technology increase efficiency e.g., within energy usage, administration, building processes, etc.
- Better planning in construction can lead to a more efficient construction process with increased reuse of materials and decrease of waste
Sprung from our identified risks and opportunities we have developed a number of concrete activities and routines that are to lead us towards a more resilient organization.
Three overall actions that were initiated with immediate effect:
- “Catena’s Sustainablilty Programme” that is to be used for all large projects. The program contains requirements that are to ensure that the identified sustainability aspects (e.g. materials, biodiversity, energy, waste, transports, water) are taken into consideration throughout the project.
- Inventory of existing properties, by classifying them based on climate risk areas. Thereafter updating maintenance plans to ensure that climate change is taken into considerations to a greater extent
- Updated sustainability targets in connection with the business plan for 2022 – read press release 28 September 2021
Parallel to the new activities that resulted from our analysis, Catena works with external monitoring, for increased and up-to-date knowledge. We also participate in networks and pilot projects to support and accelerate innovation.